After re-selection Recep Tayyip Erdogan as President of Türkiye، Market expertsThey made various predictions about the future of the Turkish economy.
Experts are of the opinion that if the path of the economy does not change, difficult times are waiting for Turkey
According to Bloomberg، In the coming week, the implied volatility of the lira against the dollar of 8.4% per day Friday 02/06/2023 increased to 64% and from othersWorld currencies are not left behind. This situation comes in the wake of uncertainty over the continuation of the Turkish government’s efforts to maintain strong control over the currency over the past few years.
Market participants are preparing for the possibility of a significant decrease in the value of the lira, despite the results of the polls.
Bloomberg calculations based on the purchase and sale prices of derivatives shows that the Turkish currency may decrease by 25% by the end of the third quarter of 2023 and reach the rate of 26 lira per dollar.
According to the statistics of the Central Bank of Türkiye, property price Across the country in February, it has increased by 141.5% compared to last year. This is despite the fact that during the same period, housing prices in the United States have increased by only 75%. Therefore, the cost of housing in Turkey is much higher than in other countries.
According to the report of the economic and social research center of Istanbul Bahceshahir University, the rental rate has increased by 157% in March of this year compared to the same time last year.
Mustafa Kocak, vice president of the Association of Entrepreneurial Real Estate Consultants (TÜGEM) warned that if after The presidential election that went to the second round, Don’t create an atmosphere of trust، Real estate market to Ben More will come. Kochak also provided information on how the prices are.
According to the Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK), housing sales in April reached 85,652 with a 35.6 percent decrease compared to the same month last year. Housing sales to foreigners decreased by 60.3% compared to the same month last year and reached 2,557.
Vice President and Civil Engineer of TÜGEM Dr. Little Mustafa Referring to continued pressureOn buying and selling real estate, he said: Even approved loans are returned.
He continued: Recently, the purchase and sale of housing has seriously decreased, according to May statistics, the price has decreased by 35% compared to last year, of course, why do these decreases happen, where does it go?
Recently, in the last 1.5-2 years, there has been a serious increase in housing prices and purchasing power has decreased, interest rates on loans have started to increase, and people have not started buying housing. is low. Loans with interest rates are given in state banks, but when you go to the bank with a very low ceiling, for example, 250-300 thousand liras, you can use credit only with the credit amount. This requires serious criticism because people do not have it. So much cash, they can’t be tempted to buy.
It can be said that buying a house is no longer a dream, it has become a bit of a dream. Because as of today, banks have completely closed both the loan and credit taps. I even read in the news. There are scenarios where even approved loans are rejected. This will cause a serious recession.
Everyone has a forecast of where inflation will go, where the dollar will go, yes, but there is no certainty. That is, we say that the dollar will rise, but there are very different expectations about how much it will rise. Apart from that, it is very uncertain where housing prices will go. Money does not like uncertainty. For this reason, it tries to escape from uncertain environments.
The fact that banks are actually rejecting credit and cashless taps is a separate issue now, but uncertainty is the biggest problem. Because I think the banks have suffered serious losses from the loans they gave in the past periods. Because the interest rates were lower, that is, the interest rates at that time were much lower than the inflation rate. Inflation was higher. For this reason, such a limit has been established. This amount has increased by 55% compared to the minimum salary in July of last year and by 100% compared to January of last year.”
If the atmosphere of trust is not created after the election, I think the market will come to a dead end. There is a law in economics. If demand decreases, the price will decrease. Now the demand has seriously decreased, but the price does not decrease. It will not collapse because this rule in economics that we call Ceteris Paribus is valid when all conditions are stagnant, while all conditions are constant, but none of the conditions are constant.
There are too many variables, too many influencing situations. So even if demand decreases, I expect prices to decrease only proportionally, i.e. by the amount of price increase. But the price reduction will not happen in the future period. How far will this go? We will see the future.
Turkish citizens feel the pressure of inflation very well, and the purchasing power of many of them has decreased drastically since last year, and the salary increase has not been able to improve this situation, especially in the housing sector. For many Turkish citizens, buying a home and owning a house has become a dream with the current state of wages and the country’s economy.
At the beginning of this year, the minimum salary in Turkey has reached 8,506 liras (equivalent to 437 dollars), but this amount is still not enough for many citizens. This amount is 55% compared to the minimum salary in July last year and compared to January this year. It has increased by 100% in the past.
In recent years, the Turkish government has implemented some policies to reduce the housing crisis and increase housing prices. However, due to the bankruptcy of some construction companies and the increase in the price of raw materials, the housing market in Turkey has faced challenges.
But Erdogan, as the president of Turkey, has implemented plans to increase the number of residential units in Turkey. She has recently announced that by 2023, more than 200,000 private housing units will be built for families with lower than average income.
Also, the Turkish government is implementing two ambitious construction projects aimed at providing housing for lower-income citizens. In addition, in the run-up to the election, Erdogan has promised to launch more housing projects to protect citizens and announce new regulations.
However, at present, the housing market situation in Turkey due to the complex economic and political conditions is still facing challenges due to non-adherence to economic policies and the lack of transparency in some government actions, in order to reach more sustainable solutions, a detailed investigation is needed. has it.
However, if the Turkish government remains loyal to the policies it has formulated to reduce the housing crisis and solves the problems in the housing market with a precise political and economic approach, we can expect that the housing market in Turkey will improve.
Deciding on the right time to buy Property in Türkiye، It depends on various factors be considered. Currently, some real estate professionals do not recommend buying property in Turkey due to unstable economic and political conditions. However, if you are looking to buy a property in Turkey, it is better to start with one Trusted real estate agent Or consult a lawyer and check the market conditions carefully.
On the other hand, due to the plans of the Turkish government for the construction of residential units, property prices in Turkey may decrease in the near future. Also, considering the predictions about the increase in inflation in 2023, it may be considered that it is better to buy a property soon to avoid the increase in prices.
However, keep in mind that buying a property requires careful consideration of market conditions, property laws and regulations in Turkey, and your financial situation. For this reason, before buying a property in Turkey, it is better to consult with real estate consultants and expert lawyers and collect enough information about real estate laws and regulations in Turkey.
Also, it should be noted that deciding when to buy property in Turkey depends on your personal circumstances and the purpose of buying property. Finally, the best way to successfully buy a property in Turkey is to do detailed research, consult with reputable professionals, and visit different properties.
Due to the developments after the elections, the drop in the value of the lira and the recent earthquakes, the demand for housing in Turkey increased sharply. On the other hand, after the war between Ukraine and Russia, a large number of citizens of these countries immigrated to Turkey and showed interest in buying property in this country.
In addition, the decline in the value of the lira occurred in the past months. Also, the Turkish government announced a few months ago that it will provide long-term loans to the poor to buy housing.
All these factors affect housing prices. Everywhere in the world, supply and demand play an important role in determining property prices. Undoubtedly, in the near future, the increase in housing prices will be visible.
Last year, we saw that people bought property by buying dollars for 20 thousand tomans in Turkey. This decision, in addition to maintaining the value of the rial, also gave them a much higher dollar value.
Therefore, people currently have the right conditions to buy property. It is better to invest in this field soon.
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